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印度是一个大国

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019-10-18 00:26:02
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  印度是一个大国

  

  

Capital outflows may crimp forex reserves#『标』『题』『分』『割』#Nation'sforeignexchangeholdingsdropby.6bfromJanuarytoAprilChina's.12trillionforeignexchangereservemayfurtherdeclineunderthepressureofcapitaloutflows,saidexperts,predictingastrongerU.S.dollarsupportedbytheFed'spossibleinterestratehikeinJune.Thenation'sforeignexchangereserves,whichwereusedasacurrencydefensewhentheyuansufferedstrongdepreciationpressuretwoyearsago,hasdropped.6billionfromJanuarytoApril,after12monthsofgrowthsinceFebruary2017,accordingtodatafromthecentralbank.DuetothecontinuallystrengtheningU.S.dollar,onMonday,theonshoreChineseyuan'sspotexchangeratehititslowestlevelsinceJan23to6.3888perdollar,andtheoffshoreyuandeclinedby150pointstolowerthan6.38onthesametradingday.The10-yearU.S.Treasuryyields,whichusuallyhaveapositivecorrelationwiththeU.S.dollarandtheFederalfundsrate,exceeded3.1percentlastweek,upfrom2.8percentamonthearlier,thehighestlevelsinceMay2011,whichhassparkedturbulenceinsomeemergingmarketsincludingArgentinaandTurkey.Regionalfinancialvulnerabilityisemergingasthoseemergingeconomiesincreasedinterestratestodealwithsurgingcapitaloutflows,resultingindebtriskexposure.ZhouXiaochuan,formergovernorofthePeople'sBankofChina,thecentralbank,warnedhissuccessorsinaspeechattheweekend"tokeepacloseeyeonwhatwillhappennext"ifthe10-yearU.S.Treasuryyieldscontinuetoriseandthedollar'sstrengthwanes.Heespeciallymentionedthatfinancialvulnerabilitycouldbestimulatedbycapitaloutflowsinemergingeconomies,especiallythosethathavelargedebts."Theinteractiveimpactofsmall-probabilityeventscouldleadtosignificantresults,"hesaid.TheChina-U.S.interestratedifferentialisusuallyseenasoneofthekeyfactorsinfluencingthepaceanddirectionofcross-bordercapitalflows.AhigherU.S.interestratewillattractmorecapitalintoitscapitalmarketseekinghigherinvestmentreturns.Theinterestrategapwasabout90basispointsinAprilwhenChinesecentralbankGovernorYiGangidentifieditwasin"acomfortablerange"forbalancedcapitalflows.Nowthegaphasfallento60basispoints."Ifthereweremajorfundoutflowsandexcessivemarketvolatility,thecentralbankcouldbepressuredtohikelocalinterestratestosupportthecurrencyandavertundermininginvestorconfidence,"saidJonathanCornish,ananalystwiththeglobalcreditratingsagencyFitchRatings.Butanylocalrateincreasecouldpressuretheassetqualityofdomesticenterprisesandincreasefundingcosts,especiallygiventhecurrenthighlevelofprivate-sectorcreditinChina,althoughthePBOChasrespondedtorecentFedhikes,accordingtoCornish,whopredictedtheFed'sfundratetobe2.50percentattheyearendand3.25percentby2019.PedroMartins,chiefemergingmarketsequitystrategistandheadofLatAmEquityResearchwithJPMorgan,predictedthatU.S.policyratesshouldgraduallymoveupwardwithintwoyears,andthecentralbankbalancesheetnormalizationwilllikelyresultinrisinglong-termratesovertimeinemergingmarkets."Thereislimitedroomforfurthersovereignspreadcompressionacrossemergingmarkets,"hesaid."Thedriversbehindemergingmarkets'economicgrowtharegrowinglargeandincludeasolidpickupinglobaltradefuelingmorebenignemergingmarketdynamicsviaasustainedriseinprivatesectorconfidenceandthecreditimpulseturningpositiveforthefirsttimesince2014."『 』『 』

  

『希』『望』『中』『日』『两』『国』『青』『年』『加』『强』『交』『流』『互』『鉴』『、』『增』『进』『相』『互』『理』『解』『、』『发』『展』『长』『久』『友』『谊』『,』『为』『开』『创』『两』『国』『关』『系』『更』『加』『美』『好』『的』『明』『天』『作』『出』『积』『极』『贡』『献』『。』(『记』『者』『刘』『佳』『旎』)


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